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Analysis points to 'corruption' of 2004 vote count
by Stephen Dyer, Akron Beacon-Journal

April 1, 2005

There's a one-in-959,000 chance that exit polls could have been so wrong in predicting the outcome of the 2004 presidential election, according to a statistical analysis released Thursday.

Exit polls in the November election showed Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., winning by 3 percent, but President George W. Bush won the vote count by 2.5 percent.

The explanation for the discrepancy that was offered by the exit polling firm -- that Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit polling -- is an "implausible theory," according to the report issued Thursday by US Count Votes, a group that claims it's made up of about two dozen statisticians.

Twelve -- including a Case Western Reserve University mathematics instructor -- signed the report.

Instead, the data support the idea that "corruption of the vote count occurred more freely in districts that were overwhelmingly Bush strongholds."

The report dismisses chance and inaccurate exit polling as the reasons for their discrepancy with the results.

They found that the one hypothesis that can't be ruled out is inaccurate election results.

"The hypothesis that the voters' intent was not accurately recorded or counted... needs further investigation," it said.

The conclusion drew a yawn from Ohio election officials, who repeated that the discrepancy issue was settled when the polling firms Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International disavowed its polls because Kerry voters were more likely to answer exit polls -- the theory Thursday's report deemed "implausible."

Ohio has been at the center of a voter disenfranchisement debate since the election.

"What are you going to do except laugh at it?" said Carlo LoParo, spokesman for Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell, who's responsible for administering Ohio's elections and is a Republican candidate for governor. "We're not particularly interested in (the report's findings). We wish them luck, but hope they find something more interesting to do."

The statistical analysis, though, shows that the discrepancy between polls and results was especially high in precincts that voted for Bush -- as high as a 10 percent difference.

The report says if the official explanation -- that Bush voters were more shy about filling out exit polls in precincts with more Kerry voters -- is true, then the precincts with large Bush votes should be more accurate, not less accurate as the data indicate.

The report also called into question new voting machine technologies.

"All voting equipment technologies except paper ballots were associated with large unexplained exit poll discrepancies all favoring the same party, (which) certainly warrants further inquiry," the report concludes.

However, LoParo remained unimpressed.

"These (Bush) voters have been much maligned by outside political forces who didn't like the way they voted," he said. "The weather's turning nice. There are more interesting things to do than beat a dead horse."

As originally published
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There's much more than this at Unknown News.

Earlier related reports from our archives:
Vote fraud: Quietly undermining democracy

March 12, 2005:
Election fraud uncovered, mayor suspended
with comments by John O.

March 8, 2005:
Blogger digs deep into vote-rigging scandal
# This guy's been spot on about a few things already. He's earned more respect, in my eyes, than the staff at many big-city dailies ...   =H&HH=

Feb. 15 and March 4, 2005:
Despite what you may have heard, the exit polls were right

Feb. 14, 2005:
Ohio's election numbers don't add up

Feb. 1, 2005:
Election fraud:  Shut up, they explain

Jan. 26, 2005:
Ohio recount volunteers allege electoral tampering, legal violations and possible fraud

Jan. 24, 2005:
The strange death of American democracy: Endgame in Ohio

Jan. 13, 2005:
Ohio pulls plug on electronic voting
with comments by Kathy Fisher and H&HH

Jan. 11, 2005:
Election farce comes to a predictable end
with comments by Aaron Laundry

Jan. 11, 2005:
The last man to concede...
by Sheila Samples, Scoop

Jan. 6, 2005:
Democrats interrupt electoral vote count, force brief debate on Ohio elections

Jan. 4, 2005:
The recount that wasn't,
a chance to reassure voters missed

by Steven Leser, Elites TV

Jan. 3, 2005:
Bush asks judge to toss Ohio election suit
  • Ohio recount highlights continuing vote trouble

  • Vote protesters try last hurrah

  • Vote challengers accuse Blackwell of trying to let 'clock run out'

Jan. 3, 2005:
Is there one senator who will
stand up for black voters?

Jan. 2, 2005:
Footprints of electoral fraud: Early numbers

Dec. 31, 2004:
Greens, Libertarians re-open Ohio lawsuit

Dec. 31, 2004:
Ohio's official non-recount ends
amidst new evidence of fraud, theft and
judicial contempt mirrored in New Mexico

Dec. 27, 2004
Evidence of fraud and disenfran-
chisement in Ohio: A partial list

Dec. 25, 2004:
Ohio numbers support claims of Triad fraud

Dec. 23, 2004:
Video suppors Ohio vote fraud claim revealed

Dec. 23, 2004:
Guide to New Mexico vote irregularities

Dec. 23, 2004:
Warren County recount --
Snookered? What happened?

Dec. 22, 2004:
In Ohio, almost 1 in 50 votes
for president didn't count

Congressman seeks exit poll data

Dec. 21, 2004
Election results in southwestern Ohio

Dec. 21, 2004:
Election official “must have mis-heard” about patch installed on computer
and other unknown news about the very odd 2004 election

      . Democrats' lawyer asks Blackwell for
      investigation of TRIAD tampering
      . Congressman implicated in vote fraud
      . Recount continues in Ohio as vote machine
      company makes odd "service calls"
      . Recount observer not allowed
      to inspect machines
      . Ohio Justice throws out election challenge
      . Ohio election officials
      obstruct recount, say Greens
      . Kerry, Bush pick up votes in Ohio
      . "Please, please, please, count all the votes"
      . Election challenge refiled by activists
      . “Everyone felt better” after
      technician “repeated a repair”
      . Votes ought to be counted

Dec. 20, 2004
“Default settings” on voting machines

Dec. 20, 2004:
Global Election Systems email proves
they knew votes were not all counted

Dec. 18, 2004:
An introduction to ... The stolen election of 2004

Dec. 18, 2004:
Ohio vote count battles escalate amidst new evidence of potential criminal activity

Dec. 18, 2004:
Cuyahoga County ballots
seemed “pre-sorted” to volunteers

Dec. 15, 2004:
Proof of Ohio election fraud exposed

Dec. 14, 2004:
Zogby insists polls were "very,
very good, extremely accurate"
. Professor says vote numbers
   don't add up
. Congressman wants 'raw' exit poll data
. Who did voters pick on Nov. 2?
   In some cases, we'll never know
. Former Congressman jailed
   for confronting Blackwell
. Ohio Supreme Court won’t
   block certification?
. Some voters hold out hope
   for Kerry victory
. Ohio counties dealing differently
   with Kerry recount requests
. FBI, Congressional staffers curious
   about self-described
   vote fraud programmer

Dec. 13, 2004:
Ex-Congressman’s account of arrest
for speaking to Blackwell

Dec. 13, 2004:
Ohio vote fraud battle heats up
by Katherine Yurica, Axis of Logic

Dec. 13, 2004:
Startling new revelations highlight rare Congressional hearings on Ohio vote

Dec. 12, 2004:
20 amazing facts about voting in the USA

Dec. 12, 2004:
Ohio absentee vote inflated

Dec. 12, 2004:
Blackwell's "locked-down" Ohio
poll records left in unlocked building

Dec. 11, 2004:
Complete original exit polls from 2004 election

Dec. 11, 2004:
Diebold pays $2.6-million
to settle California lawsuit

Dec. 11, 2004:
Ohio election investigation thwarted
by surprise Blackwell order

Dec. 10, 2004:
Zogby insists polls were "very,
very good, extremely accurate"

. Professor says vote numbers don't add up
. Congressman wants 'raw' exit poll data
. Who did voters pick on Nov. 2?
  In some cases, we'll never know
. Former Congressman jailed
  for confronting Blackwell
. Ohio Supreme Court won’t block certification
. Some voters hold outhope for Kerry victory
. Ohio counties dealing differently
  with Kerry recount requests
. FBI, Congressional staffers curious about
  self-described vote fraud programmer

Dec. 10, 2004:
Blackwell locks out recount volunteers,
claims voter records not public documents

Dec. 10, 2004:
Uncounted votes in Ohio's Montgomery County

Dec. 7, 2004:
Florida e-vote study debunked by statisticians

Earlier related reports from our archives:
Vote fraud: Quietly undermining democracy

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