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Who has gained from the failed US policy?
Despite the existing tensions between Iran and the US, I think we are scaling back from the edge and in fact settling into the beginnings of an "uncomfortable détente" in the Middle East. Iran is still building a bomb. The question of whether the US and Israel will let them do it, like North Korea, remains unresolved. The Iraq war has achieved much success, but not for the US. Who has gained from the failed US policy?
• Al Qaeda: Instead of focusing on crushing "The Fortress", the Iraq war has provided an unbelievable gift to Al Qaeda. Following the collapse of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and the withdrawal of support from its patron nations like Pakistan, Al Qaeda was doing nothing for two years except trying to survive.
Now, however, and as I mentioned to you some time ago, Al Qaeda has reconstituted itself with true global reach and is more dangerous than ever in the less centralized manner in which it organizes and executes its destructive capability.
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Eventually the US will experience more terror on its soil, but I think Al Qaeda's immediate goal is to remove US influence from the Middle East, thereby allowing Al Qaeda to focus its efforts on destabilizing moderate Arab States and attacking Israel via Palestine, Hez b'Allah and Hamas.
Thereafter, assuming their efforts are successful, the US will become Target #1.
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Its two main bases of operations are now in Iraq and Pakistan (Waziristan//Baluchistan). This group grows like a cancer within the failed body of a decaying state, and the hearts and minds of disenfranchised Muslims. This group will begin to make its name more forcibly known throughout Western and Southern Europe, North and East Africa, and specifically Gaza, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Bangledesh.
Why not the US? Eventually the US will experience more terror on its soil, but I think Al Qaeda's immediate goal is to remove US influence from the Middle East, thereby allowing Al Qaeda to focus its efforts on destabilizing moderate Arab States and attacking Israel via Palestine, Hez b'Allah and Hamas. Thereafter, assuming their efforts are successful, the US will become Target #1. (at the moment though, US citizens have had more success terrorizing their own people...)
• Afghanistan's Taliban: When the US withdraws from Iraq, surely Afghanistan will follow.
• Anti-Muslim "scapegoaters": Following future attacks from radical Jihadists in Europe, I suspect Muslims in general will be thought of as social pariah (e.g., France). It would not be correct, in my opinion, to compare the politicization of fear against Muslims to the horrendous treatment of Jewish people by the NAZIs. On the surface, hatred may spawn this analogy, but the underlying social/political/economic context is completely different from those that spawned the beginning of the implementation of the final solution symbolized by Crystal Nacht in Nov 1938.
• Russia & China: In less than five years the US has gone from being the sole economic and military superpower to once again being in a position to be challenged both militarily and economically by the rising superpower, China, and its old cold-war rival, Russia.
In short (and this is not a great surprise to you) your country and your people have not been well-served by the neo-con Government of the last six years. I sincerely hope the US can begin to live up to the high ideals of its political and economic propaganda. But, I fear the instability generated by the failed US Middle East policy will seriously plague your country (and your allies) for quite some time.
The US does not share this responsibility alone. Many countries have facilitated US foreign policy, including Canada. We will all share in the bitter fruit of the failed US policy.
Your thoughts?
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My thoughts aren't worth much. International affairs are not my forté, but if the Bush-Cheney administration has any forté it's simply chaos. A bull in a china shop does its damage as an act of nature, but Bush-Cheney has done its damage with malice and forethought. It's been six years of sheer folly, and it's been on purpose.
Iraq will devolve into bloody chaos, quite possibly genocide, if or when the U.S. ever leaves. And Bush-Cheney, of course, will be happy to pass this catastrophe they've crafted on to the next administration. Leaving was never in their plans, or in their wildest dreams. They'd rather face impeachment, if it came down to that.
Afghanistan will have a happier fate. The Taliban will resume command and control as soon as the occupying armies leave, and that's the government most Afghans seem to want. So be it, far as I'm concerned.
Obviously, the Americans and soldiers of a few other nations who died to topple the governments of Afghanistan and Iraq, and to hold those nations in occupation, died for nothing. Diddlysquat. Wasted lives, that's all. And when someone in American politics develops the testicles to say that out loud, I'll eat my hat.
I'm not entirely sure what you're saying about anti-Muslim prejudice. Unlike anti-Semitism, there are and will continue to be regular incidents of Muslim-made violence fueling anti-Muslim hatred, but I don't expect Muslims to take the crap they're being dealt without striking back. It's the textbook example of a vicious cycle: Terrorism is going to continue to be oppressed Muslims' only realistic means of striking back at their oppressors, and their oppressors will continue using Muslim terrorism to fuel more crap for Muslims to take, which will of course lead to more terrorism.
I'll admit, I don't pay close attention to Russian politics, but my glancing impression is that Putin is a dangerous basket-case, and that the Bush-Cheney administration has done nothing to discourage and plenty to encourage his nuttiness.
China holds the economic power to bring America to its knees, any time it wishes.
And in all the above, in everything since 9/11, including 9/11, and from years before 9/11, the United States brought these problems upon itself.
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My point about anti-Muslim sentiment is predicated upon prejudice fueled by misunderstanding. For example, Europeans did not think all Irish were terrorists due to the activities of the IRA. Certainly, Europeans in general, did not extrapolate that all Catholics are terrorists because the IRA were Catholics. For Muslims, however, the very fact that they are Muslim is enough to be hated by many ordinary Europeans, and Americans for that matter.
I agree with you that this type of hatred leads to very destructive "eye for and eye" retribution.
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