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Dialogue: Letters to the editor
   
I said, "War is close"

by The Canadian

June 30, 2007
 PERMANENT LINK 
First, a general rebuttal:

In my earlier remarks, I never said that I thought this would lead to WW3. These were comments attributed to my conclusion. I said, "War is close".
 
The headline, America, your president is about to launch World War III, was all mine, so anyone arguing with that can argue with me.

Helen & Harry

Re Disputed points
"Iran has rationed fuel to its population causing riots and discontent."

That's false. Iran has decreased its subsidy of fuel prices. Iran subsidized the cost of fuel for its citizens; it has some of the lowest gas prices in the world as a result. This measure is very costly and the Iranian government couldn't afford to continue. The same amount of fuel is for sale in Iran, it's just more expensive. Iranians feel entitled to the subsidy, hence the riots.
"Iranian youths have set fire to a Tehran petrol station in protest after the government introduced fuel rationing. Iran, the second largest crude producer among the OPEC members, announced it would introduce petrol rationing for motorists from Wednesday".  (Al Jazeera, June 27 2007)
"Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has dramatically escalated his socialist policies."

Hugo Chavez talks a big game, but one of Venezuela's biggest customers is the US. Chavez tweaks the US for publicity and is consolidating his power by nationalizing property, but he knows that his economic power stems from the US buying his fuel.
"President Hugo Chavez won instant political capital by forcing U.S. oil giants from Venezuela but the nationalist moves pose economic challenges that could undermine his socialist revolution. Chavez, who prides himself on his tirades against U.S. President George W. Bush, this week struck his most costly blow against any company since coming to power in 1999 by seizing oil fields from Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips. Billions of dollars were wiped off the share value of ConocoPhillips and Exxon."  (Reuters June 28 2007)

"Early this year Mr. Chavez launched a nationalization campaign that included giving PdVSA majority stakes in four heavy-oil upgrading projects in the Orinoco area. Other foreign partners, namely Chevron Corp., Statoil ASA, Total Oil, and BP Plc, accepted the new terms as minority partners with the state in control. The leftist leader, who has cemented ties with countries such as Russia, Iran and Cuba, pointed out that Venezuela's allies would be more than willing to do business with the oil-rich nation."  (The Wall Street Journal June 28 2007)
"The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is full."

It's always full.
Really?

Please note the example below: If a President can order the SPR to be filled, then I think one can assume it was NOT full..." The example below is dated but I thought, "hey, why not get a quote that cannot be refuted?".

"President Orders Strategic Petroleum Reserve Filled"

Statement by the President:
"The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is an important element of our Nation's energy security. To maximize long-term protection against oil supply disruptions, I am directing today the Secretary of Energy to fill the SPR up to its 700 million barrel capacity.

The SPR will be filled in a deliberate and cost-effective manner. This will be done principally through royalty-in-kind transfers to be implemented by the Department of Energy and the Department of the Interior.

Our current oil inventories, and those of our allies who hold strategic stocks, are sufficient to meet any potential near-term disruption in supplies. Filling the SPR up to capacity will strengthen the long-term energy security of the United States. " GEORGE W. BUSH (The White House, Nov 2001)
"Politicians on all sides of this conflict have a vested political interest in war as a means of political survival. They are all hard-liners."

On all sides? That's crazy. The Iranians don't want a war; they know they can't win. Anyone in Washington who has a passing understanding of the Middle East knows how disastrous a conflict with Iran would be.
Ok. Of all the countries involved in this geopolitical roster, please give me an example of a National Leader who is NOT considered to be a "hardliner":

Russia: Vladimir Putin
China: Hu Jintao
USA: George Bush
Iran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (President)
Iraq: George Bush -- by Proxy
Israel: Ehud Olmert
Syria: Hafez al-Assad
Saudi: House Of Saud Royal Family
Egypt: Hosni Mubarak
Jordan: King Abdullah
Palestine: Hafez al-Assad, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (President) -- by proxy
Gulf Arab States: any democratically elected leaders here? -- nope
Lybia: Moamer Gathafi

Re Exaggeration
Chavez "nationalized" oil reserves by buying them from oil companies, not by expropriation. It's perfectly legitimate, and hardly a sign of a world war.

Turkey's military is financed by the US, they'll repress the curds in their own country with great violence, but an attack on South Kurdistan won't happen without approval of the US.

There's a lot of exaggeration in this article.
For what it is worth, I am a Banker with a Master's Degree in Business ("MBA"). What you described is exactly one method of nationalization and, call it what you will, when companies have the choice of "buy-in or leave", most Bankers would call this Political Expropriation. I never said it was a sign of war, however, Chavez and Iran have mutually supportive ties. I was asserting that the choice of Chavez to expedite his Nationalization Plan at this time was suspect given Iran's rationing.

"There is a desire by Chávez to accelerate what he views as a strategic alliance with Iran," said Alberto Garrido, author of "Chávez's Wars," a book recently published here that explores Venezuela's ties to the Middle East. "The Venezuelan left has for decades considered alliances with Muslim countries as one of the ways to create a new civilization through the toppling of American values."

For the time being, Venezuela's relations with Iran have revolved around Mr. Chávez's defense of Iran's uranium enrichment plans, while the two countries deepen their cooperation in oil-related areas. For instance, Venezuela said last month that it would buy four oil tankers from Iran, part of Venezuela's plan to increase its 21-ship tanker fleet through the acquisition of 42 additional vessels.

Iran and Venezuela, the world's fourth- and fifth-largest oil exporters, are also exploring for oil together in Venezuela's Orinoco region. And they have plans for a joint oil trading company, part of an ambition by Caracas and Tehran to price oil in euros instead of dollars in order to weaken the influence of the United States in the international oil market."  The New York Times, January 14, 2007

Re My impression of an alarm clock
America will not invade Iran. It does not have the power to. It's overstretched as it is. If a third world country like Iraq can consistently kick Americas ass (I'm just reversing the logic of Republican rhetoric here), think what a westernized, young, and strongly nationalist (though not fundamentally Islamist) state could do.

Wake up.
I am wide awake and you have know idea how I have learned to think this way.

If America were to attack Iran, the use of ground forces would be limited to the capture of strategic oil facilities, both on land and off-shore. (Province of Khuzestan has 90% of oil reserves and is close to the Iraq border nearest the Iraqi city of Bazra).

I suggest an attack would be primarily executed via air and seaborne assault.

Via the following links, please note a roster of "Allied" fleets already stationed in and around the ME: (you tell me why they are there?)

www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1208: (This is a Right of Center site and openly biased in favor of Israeli Foreign Policy, but generally quite accurate)

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/02/24/wiran24.xml

www.military.com/features/0,15240,136820,00.html

informationdissemination.blogspot.com/search/label/Signs%20of%20War (This Blog site is Center Opinion and is intelligently written)

www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=44396

(fairly balanced article from a good web-site supported with accurate references and reasonable "new media" credentials)

I also suggest you read carefully the following excerpt from Zbigniew Brzezinski's testimony to the Senate Foreign relations Committee on Feb 1, 2007.

Here is his article:(and I think it merits careful consideration, and Helen Highwater you alluded to this already, didn't you?)

foreign.senate.gov/testimony/2007/BrzezinskiTestimony070201.pdf

If you do not know who Zbigniew Brzezinski is, please note this excerpt from Wikipedia:
Zbigniew Kazimierz Brzezinski (born March 28, 1928, Warsaw, Poland) is a Polish-American political scientist, geostrategist, and statesman.

He served as United States National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1981. He was known for his hawkish foreign policy at a time when the Democratic Party was increasingly dovish. He is a foreign policy realist, and considered to be the Democrats' response to Henry Kissinger, also a realist, who served under President Nixon.

Major foreign policy events during his term of office included the normalization of relations with the People's Republic of China (and the severing of ties with the Republic of China -- today's Taiwan), the signing of the SALT II arms control treaty, the brokering of the Camp David Accords, the transition of Iran to an anti-Western Islamic state (the "loss" of Iran), encouraging reform in Eastern Europe, emphasizing human rights in U.S. foreign policy, the arming of the mujaheddin in Afghanistan to fight against a new Soviet-friendly Afghan government and then to counter the Soviet invasion, and the signing of the Torrijos-Carter Treaties relinquishing U.S. control of the Panama Canal after 1999.

He is currently a professor of American foreign policy at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and a member of various boards and councils. He appears frequently as an expert on the PBS program The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer.
Well, Helen and Harry, sorry for the long article, but I want your readers to know that I just don't pull my opinions "out of my ass".

The Canadian   

  No need to apologize for the length, of course.

Something I noticed was that of the several people who challenged you on the facts, virtually none are (to my knowledge) our regular readers. The people you're responding to are, I suspect, all newcomers who don't know you from Adam, and some of them -- like alarm clock guy -- aren't even worth the effort to straighten out.

Our readers, I think, know that you're not one to go off half-cocked or prattle on with exaggeration.

Helen & Harry unknownnews@inbox.com




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