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The Bush-Paulson plan

by Mr. Chuckles

Dec. 7, 2007
 PERMANENT LINK 
Well before the crack of dawn this morning, I turned on the tube and set the channel to CNBC to find out what was happening. To my amusement (and attachment to things
sublimely ridiculous), I saw a stock photo of President Bush in his younger, happier days, back when the Prez looked at his job the way a young girl might look at her first pony. The caption on the screen was "The Bush-Paulson
 
Everything but the kitchen sink will be thrown at the problem -- because rising prices are ignored by the Feds, and profits are private, but falling prices are alarming to the Feds and get socialized.
Plan". Isn't that the way of bureaucracies, with the top guy adding his name to the work of his underlings. (Hmmm... that happens a LOT in academia too!)

Now that Bush has added his stamp of approval to the Paulson Plan, it is reasonable to suppose that the plan is going to fail catastrophically.

Bush set to announce help on mortgages

And in fact, Max Fraad Wolff lays out that case very well. Mr. Wolff (a doctoral candidate) points out that recent defaults are not primarily a sub-prime phenomenon:
 
Excerpt: These defaults are not predominantly the result of resets. We know this because a rising portion of people are missing payments well before their rates change.

This research suggests that many folks are very quickly unable/unwilling to make payments. This group is offered nothing by the plan. What is the problem here? Home price and market condition, income variation and fraud are behind these default rates. Housing and mortgage fraud seems to have surged as the market topped out in late 2006. House prices are now falling nationally and will continue to do so through 2008. Employment growth is likely to slow with economic growth across 2008. If peak market mortgage fraud, falling house prices and income issues are driving defaults, the Hope Now alliance offers little solution.

In short, the assumption on which the Treasury plan rests may not be adequately grounded in market conditions. The problems with this assumption will become increasingly clear as house prices continue to fall, incomes are pressured and further fraud comes to light.

Mr. Wolff makes a number of other excellent points and I recommend the article highly.

The bottom line now? Another catastrophic "failure" which is almost identical to Enron, complete with off-balance sheet shenanigans, massive fraud, mis-regulation, and rip-offs of the citizenry.

Furthermore, the real bailout is underway and has nothing to do with the "Bush-Paulson" plan. #1 interest rates are being pushed below the actual inflation rate -- on track to 2% fed funds by December 2009; and #2 massive transfer of bad debt from private industry to the Fed and Treasury.

And don't expect anyone at CFC or Citi or Merrill Lynch, et al, to be heading to prison; they get away clean this time, once again.

The problem that must be solved is that prices are unaffordable in relation to income. That can only be fixed with massive monetary inflation, dollar devaluation, reduced real estate prices, federal monetization of bad debts, and time.

Everything but the kitchen sink will be thrown at the problem -- because rising prices are ignored by the Feds, and profits are private, but falling prices are alarming to the Feds and get socialized.

And by the way, during the next few years as the Democrats attempt to reduce wasteful spending and increase tax revenues, you will probably hear well-meaning people talk about how they don't like these "income redistribution schemes". The fact is that income is being redistributed, and this is the American Way, from the poor to the rich by the Federal Reserve and its money printing presses.

Inflation is a tax that mainly affects low income people because a) the wealthy own hard assets that inflate nicely; b) the wealthy don't spend as much of their income on necessities; and c) wages tend to lag inflation, especially at lower income levels. Soooo.... attempting to stop the insane growth of national indebtedness is a good thing and must be done.

*           *           *
Background for the above:
(Preface: many NYT articles are 'locked' behind a sign-in page but if you put the article title into google.com and search for it you may find that it has been published elsewhere as a "free range" story...like this one which we find at IHT):

Wary of risk, Wall Street bankers sold shaky mortgage debt
 
Excerpt: One big bank that saw the trouble coming, Goldman Sachs, began reducing its inventory of mortgages and mortgage securities late last year. Even so, Goldman went on to package and sell more than $6 billion of new securities backed by subprime mortgages during the first nine months of this year.

Of the loans backing the Goldman deals for which data is available, nearly 15 percent are already delinquent by more than 60 days, are in foreclosure or have resulted in the repossession of a home, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The average default rate for subprime loans packaged in 2007 is 11 percent.

If you recall, Hank Paulson was CEO of Goldman Sachs until May 30, 2006, when he was invited to join the Bush Regime as Treasury Secretary. Today's revelation of the "Bush-Paulson Plan" to save troubled "sub-prime" borrowers from default may be labeled a heroic act by well-known mortgage security "fireman/arsonist", Hank Paulson...

The Enron story was identical in most key respects. Virtually every big bank and brokerage was involved in the secret offshore scheme of Enron and were key enablers of the schemes. This year a court ruled that the geniuses who invented the rip-offs who worked for the banks/brokerages cannot be held responsible for how Enron used the schemes, and the Supreme Court /may/ take up the question:

UC appeals Enron bank case to Supreme Court
 
Excerpt: Enron Corporation was found to have committed investor fraud in 2001 and then collapsed.

The university alleges that banks knew of the fraud and should now be held responsible for their role in Enron’s investor fraud.

The total alleged loss for all plaintiffs involved is estimated at $40 billion, Davis said.

Virtually all of the same corporations that were knee deep in the Enron swamp are even deeper in the subprime mortgage debacle. Most ended up paying token settlements and of course, the Bush Regime did not prosecute its friends vigorously. So here we are again, but 10 times bigger.

It may be a truism, but the truth is that the majority of property crime, in terms of total losses, originates on Wall Street and is aided and abetted in Washington D.C. Yet few of the criminals are ever sent to prison in spite of their manifest, proven, indisputable, fully revealed guilt.

Every 5, 10 or 20 years Wall Street invents a new swindle and steals a few billion or trillion dollars, and they get away clean every time. (The real outrage is when they lobby Congress so that they can pay lower taxes on their ill-gotten gains than people who make money the old-fashioned way, by working for a living.)

But instead of punishing these people who are repeat offenders stealing from widows, orphans and everyone within 10,000 miles of them, the U.S. is happy to send minor substance abusers to hard time in prison. 25% of black people go to real (hard) prison but only about 0.000001% of Wall Street criminals go to "Club Fed", and then for 24 or 36 months at most...

Mr. Chuckles 

  Thanks, I needed that ... Not twenty minutes ago I was reading coverage of Bush's brilliant plan and sort of chuckling, I wonder what Mr Chuckles would think of this ...

Helen & Harry 

C.B. replies, NobodySpecial replies
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