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As the Empire folds in on itself
by Herb Ruhs, MD
| Feb. 8, 2008 |
As I have mentioned in my writings, the irony is that Cuba is the best model for what we are facing as the Empire folds in on itself (as opposed to the possibility that it will just turn the game board over and blow up the world and thus making any discussion of sustainable living and mere survival a moot point).
Cuba is such a good model because it was a moderately urbanized, petroleum dependent, industrial agriculture dependent country that
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Certainly I will shed no tears for the passing of the insane way of life that we have been forced to depend on, almost no matter what happens.
And I do expect to see this in my lifetime. |
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suddenly, with the umbilical cord to the Soviet Union cut, was forced to cope by reengineering the entire economy and food system.
They had some tough days, and recently seem to have veered away from self sufficiency by way of the tourist trade, but, all in all, they had a successful natural experiment with economic collapse that is very relevant to live in the twenty first century.
The population decentralized to a large degree, and organic gardening (fertilizer and pesticides going away with the oil) grew to meet local demands. Calculations I have seen indicate that about half of us, or all of us half the time, if I had my way, would be involved in direct food production of a mostly organic nature by necessity, with the remainder involved in the rest of the trades of what will still be a significantly modern society with advanced levels of education, architecture, transportation, etc. as well as an energized segment devoted to sustainable technology development. Also there will be a lot more time and opportunity for artistic pursuits with a much more localized and non-corporate system of entertainment. This could all happen, as it did in Cuba, in a couple of decades, if we are lucky. So I am greatly encouraged. Certainly I will shed no tears for the passing of the insane way of life that we have been forced to depend on, almost no matter what happens. And I do expect to see this in my lifetime.
Of course one can imagine a multitude of ways that it could all go wrong and end up more like Road Warrior, but persevering with these sorts of thoughts just makes bad outcomes more likely as it raises the level of fear, and consequently stress, both of which determine less than optimal levels of recovery after this surrealistic world we were born into crumbles and goes to a well deserved grave.
The big thing that I see on the blogs these days is a conviction that half or more of the worlds population will die. This is also not a high probability if we keep our heads. The down scaling of concentrated industrial production, both agricultural and manufacturing, will greatly decrease the demand for scarce resources and thus decrease proportionally the impetus to war, which is always the big killer. Granted, rising sea levels, drought and crazy weather, and perhaps large scale pandemics, will take their toll, and people are going to need to curb the products of libido to keep family and community sizes more in line with local resources of land and water, but there is no reason that the population can not take a few generations to shrink towards a more manageable size. Most of the problems of population size are not related to mere numbers but, rather, to the inordinate consumption of the top ten percent. The earth can support a lot of happy poor people who, with a little intelligence and creativity, can start repairing a lot of the ecological damage done by the nightmare of civilization as we have known it.
So if you WANT to be glum about the future, go ahead, but I don't see the necessity of it.
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Short of World War III, I don't see mass population die-off as a prerequisite to a better world, and I don't read the blogs that dwell on that ... And if the collapse of western civilization happens in an orderly manner, then certainly America could unwind itself into something resembling the better aspects of Cuba, but that's an awfully big if.
Cuba has its attractions, but I'm not ready to embrace socialism as an absolute. I prefer it more as a safety net, a socialized minimum of food and shelter and et cetera, with free enterprise options for anyone who wants fancier food, bigger shelter, or whatever. But I don't spend a lot of time thinking about socio-economic scenarios I'm not living in, it's just an interesting diversion from the war/peace and freedom/gulag issues that usually grab my attention.
So the big picture I see is that "western civilization" has become a seven-syllable way to say insanity, but I don't have an all-encompassing vision of a better tomorrow. I just see huge, obvious problems, and huge, obvious solutions that nobody's making any headway pursuing. End incorporation that shields stockholders from the consequences of their crimes, and to my thinking you've ended a lot of the injustice and destructiveness of capitalism. End inheritance that passes great wealth to people who never earned it, and to my thinking you've got the funds to address so many of society's problems. End the insurance industry and nationalize health care, and you've got good, solid medical care for everyone.
I've got a big wad of wonderful solutions like these in my back pocket, but no big overarching vision of a better society. Well, except that as the biggest societal problems are solved, the remaining problems will be smaller. That would be better. So in my most optimistic moments, I dream of smaller problems.
But more realistically, I don't see anyone making any progress toward the reintroduction of sanity, so I remain glum. You think the glumness is a matter of choice? I just don't see the grounds for optimism, but I try not to dwell on that, either...
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