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Making money the old fashioned way: Smart friends

by Mr. Chuckles

Mar. 31, 2008
 PERMANENT LINK 
What follows may be long and boring to some people. If so, disregard, go watch funny movie (recommend Harold & Kumar: Escape From Guantanamo Bay" which will be released on April 25th, a must see for serious comedy fans :-)

On other hand, some other people may benefit. This is a product of self brain sweat and
NOTE: info herein provided only for amusement and general entertainment. Is not solicitation, offer or advice. No guarantees of correctness. You responsible for your own actions. Don't blame us if you lose money. Consult your own advisors and do you homework. :-)
research, not copied from other people (and is therefore very contrarian, not part of the mainstream... you might call it Unknown News...)

One in 6 West Virginians is on food stamps
 
Excerpt: ... A total of 122,877 of the state's estimated 743,064 households currently receive food stamps. That's up from 105,365 households in 2003.

But while the number of people on the program has jumped sharply, the federal government has raised the average per-person monthly benefits over that time by just $12 to $85.

The total cost of helping West Virginians eat is thus between 10 million and 25 million a month (uncertain how many people per household) -- for a maximum of $300 million a year. Which equals 0.25% of one Bush brain fart.

West Virginia is pretty poor! So let's take a look at home prices using our good friend, Yahoo (requires images, javascript and cookies). Use search, then click "Price" button to invert the list so that low prices are shown first. Voila!

3rd = $31,000 3 bdrm 2 bath, w/tenants
10th = $89,000 3 bdrm, 2 bath

Note: #10 is priced below the median, and looks pretty nice. Hope they have air conditioning though, because in summer... ... whew... it's gonna be as hot as Satan's jock strap in West Virginia! And winters are cold, I think.

The lesson is: all prices are relative to other prices. If West Virginia were a rich state then houses would cost more, but it isn't so they don't. Even with the US dollar so cheap, how many Germans want to invest in Charleston fixer-uppers?

Here is an article from the lovely Aden Sisters about why commodity prices are going to keep rising:

The mega commodity move: Why it's happening
 
Excerpt: You see, a recession could turn into a deflation, accompanied by massive bank failures, and that’s something no one wants. Sure, all this money is fueling inflation and the commodity boom. And yes, lower interest rates are making the US dollar super unattractive and driving it to new all time record lows, but low rates will help the economy.

The bottom line is that this inflation option is a whole lot better than the deflation option, and that’s what the Fed and the world’s central banks have chosen to do. They really have no other choice.

So, it looks like things are going to get worse for USers and THEYers before things get better. Massive global money inflation is happening, along with a global world war in currencies -- each country printing as much funny money as possible!

We have to figure out the value of things and compare that to the cost. According to the Aden sisters commodities, including gold, oil, etc. will keep rising for another 10 years or more. But these prices have gone vertical in the last few months and are therefore, relatively expensive -- just two pounds of gold will buy a 3 bedroom 2 bath house in Charleston WV, which already has tenants paying $600 a month!

Over at stockcharts.com the ":" symbol is used to create a chart showing the ratio of two different prices. So we can get a chart showing the price of gold in terms of oil via "$gold:$wtic" or "GLD:USO".

Also, there are real estate ETF's (mutual funds that trade like stocks) for both the US and the rest of the world:

US: IYR, VNQ, RWR

World except US: RWX, DWR.

And here is the global (world) stock index symbol: $DJW

And stock index symbols: US: SPY, VTI

World except US: VEU

OK, so look, globally except US, real estate has fallen much faster than stocks ("RWX:VEU" ratio).

Same deal here in US ("IRY:SPY")

In fact, it appears that real estate is now OUT-PERFORMING stocks in the US! Could that be a result of the fact that the US government has begun nationalizing real estate losses but haven't yet guaranteed losers in stocks?

It even looks like US real estate vs. gold has bottomed (use "IYR:GLD").

NOTE: IYR, VNQ, RWR, RWX and DWR are not "real estate" per se, but rather ETFs that track indexes of companies that own real estate: REITs and commercial/residential property investors. DWR is not recommended as an actual "investment" because the volume is so low -- may not survive. Also, these ETFs pay dividends of between 3 and 5 percent, which is higher than CDs pay in the US now. (Warning: On other hand, these things could start falling again, so one idea is buy little bit then wait a year and buy little bit more and see how it goes.)

ALSO: The 3 year chart of the US Dollar Index (3 year $USD) looks like a drunk falling off a balcony. We know cats bounce, even dead cats. But will the dollar? And when? In theory the US could become like Sweden or Belgium and raise taxes dramatically while socializing all services to the max, and eventually, perhaps, with a shift towards an export-oriented economy, we could dig our way out of our hole(s) and the dollar could rise again (monkeys not fly out of ass either!)

In the meantime, work on contingency plans (?) ... conserve resources and accumulate "stuff". Nothing wrong with 1/10th ounce gold American Eagles, which are legal tender -- buy one each month, forever, hide in ass. And there is nothing wrong, in theory, with using a discount brokerage to "stash" loot in various things, such as GLD, VNQ, SLV, GDX, RWX ... whatever. If the sexy Aden Sisters are right then "good" stuff will be good to have in the future and paper currency will be "bad" stuff, regardless of what country you're in.

Mr. Chuckles  unknownnews@inbox.com





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