ÿþ<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN"> <html> <head> <title>Unknown&nbsp;News | Helen & Harry's cranky weblog of news and opinion | unknownnews@inbox.com &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</title> <META content="abuse of authority, alternative news, anarchist news, anti-bush news, anti-cheney news, anti-republican news, bad cops, bush news, cheney news, civil rights, corrupt cops news, crooked cops, freedom news, liberal news, libertarian news, maniac cops, minarchist news, police blotter, police brutality, police corruption news, police misconduct, progressive news, rumsfeld news"name=KEYWORDS> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; 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<A HREF="http://www.unknownnews.org/stickers.html">Stickers</A> &amp; <A HREF="http://www.unknownnews.org/forsale.html">stuff</A> &nbsp;&nbsp;|<BR> </TD></TR></TABLE></td><td width="150" align=center valign="middle" bgcolor="#eeeeee" class="font15"><A HREF="http://www.unknownnews.org/stickers.html"><img src="http://www.unknownnews.net/buyabumpersticker.jpg" border="0" width="138" height="23"></A> </td></tr></table><TABLE CELLPADDING="0" CELLSPACING="0" WIDTH="980" border=0><TR> <TD ALIGN="center" VALIGN="TOP" WIDTH="830" BGcolor="#dddddd" class="fonty"> <iframe src="http://www.unknownnews.org/frames-new.html" height="32" width="830" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" frameborder="0"></iframe></TD><TD ALIGN="center" valign="middle" WIDTH="150" BGcolor="#eeeeee" class="fonty"><A HREF="http://www.unknownnews.org/donations.html"><img src="http://www.unknownnews.net/makeadonation.jpg" border="0" width="138" height="23"></A> </TD></TR></TABLE><!-- end uniform header--> <TABLE CELLPADDING="0" CELLSPACING="0" WIDTH="980" border=0><TR> <TD ALIGN="LEFT" VALIGN="TOP" WIDTH="10" BGcolor="#eeeeee" class="fonttnr"> </TD> <TD ALIGN="LEFT" VALIGN="TOP" WIDTH="10" BGcolor=white class="fonttnr">&nbsp;</TD> <TD ALIGN="LEFT" VALIGN="TOP" WIDTH="625" BGcolor=white class="fonty"> <A NAME=ANCHOR></A><BR><BIG><B>It really could be the end of the world as we know it</B></BIG><BR><BR> <table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4" style="border-collapse: collapse" width="67%" align="right"><tr><td class="fonty" vAlign="top" align="left" width="100%" bgColor="#ffffff"> <TABLE CELLPADDING="5" CELLSPACING="5" WIDTH="100%" border=1><TR> <TD ALIGN="left" VALIGN="top" WIDTH="100%" bgcolor="#eeeeee" class="fonty"> <A NAME=ANCHOR></A><A HREF="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=home&sid=a7u7y24vbV38"><B>Lehman credit-swap auction sets payout of 91.38 cents</B></A><br><br><I><b>Excerpt:&nbsp;</b></I> Sellers of credit-default protection on bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. will have to pay 91.375 cents on the dollar to settle the contracts, setting up the biggest-ever payout in the $55 trillion market.<br><br> An auction to determine the size of the settlement on Lehman credit-default swaps set a value of 8.625 cents on the dollar for the debt, according to Creditfixings.com, a Web site run by auction administrators Creditex Group Inc. and Markit Group Ltd. The auction may lead to payments of more than $270 billion, BNP Paribas SA strategist Andrea Cicione in London said.&nbsp;...<BR><BR><CENTER><BIG><B><FONT COLOR=gray>*** &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; *** &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ***</FONT></B></BIG></CENTER> <A NAME=ANCHOR></A><A HREF="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081010/lehman_credit_defaults.html?.v=4"><B>Lehman debt auction gives clue to potential losses</B></A><br><br><I><b>Excerpt:&nbsp;</b></I> Sellers of insurance on bonds issued by bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. are now likely to face demands that they pay out more than 91 cents on the dollar to buyers of those insurance contracts.&nbsp;... </TD></TR></TABLE></td></tr></table>by <B>The Canadian</B><BR><BR> This <img src="http://www.unknownnews.org/rightarrow.jpg" border="0" width="42" height="12"> is NOT good.<BR><BR>The veneer of civilization will soon begin to become incredibly thin.<br><br> It's an insurance issue. If you have insurance on your house, for example, and it gets damaged, the insurance company has cash reserves created from the payment of premiums of all of the other policy holders who have not submitted claims at the same time as you did. In other words, claim payments are based on the probability that a common disaster will not affect all policy holders at once.<br><br>Policy holders pay their premiums and create a pool of money with an insurance company to share risk. Every policy holder pays a premium value that the insurance company thinks will provide enough of a reserve pool of cash sufficient to pay claims based on a normal claims history. <A NAME=sidebar></A><table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4" style="border-collapse: collapse" width="324" align="right"><tr><td class="fonty" vAlign="middle" align="left" width="100%" bgColor="#ffffff"><table cellSpacing="5" cellPadding="5" width="100%" border="0"><tr><td class="fonty" vAlign="top" align="left" width="100%" bgColor="#ffffff"> <center><img src="http://www.unknownnews.net/going-out-of-business.jpg" border="1" width="333" height="314"></center> </td></tr></table></td></tr></table> What if a whole city were destroyed and not just your house? Could an insurance company pay all the claims? Not likely, as it will not have enough cash reserved to pay all the claims of the policy holders at one time during such a common disaster. What it means, in a nutshell, is that Lehman's assets are worth only 9.75 cents on the dollar of their original insured value. Creditors of Lehman Brothers are now "cashing in" or claiming the insurance policies they purchased in the event that Lehman Brothers did not repay (defaulted) on their intercreditor loan payments.<br><br>Please consider that bank assets are not things like machines and stuff, they are financial instruments and securities and these have been destroyed by the current market volatility. The insurance companies that issued the policies have to pay the difference between what the assets are currently deemed to be worth, meaning what the creditors recovered from the defaulted debtor, and their insured value.<br><br> The market auction basically stated that Lehman's assets are worth 10 cents on the dollar, but they were insured for $1.00. As such the insurance companies now have to pay-out, in cash, the difference of 90 cents for every dollar of assets they insured to the creditors. <table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4" style="border-collapse: collapse" width="60%" align="left"><tr><td class="fonty" vAlign="top" align="left" width="100%" bgColor="#ffffff"><table cellSpacing="5" cellPadding="5" width="100%" border="0"><tr><td class="fonty" vAlign="top" align="left" width="100%" bgColor="#bbbbbb"><table cellSpacing="2" cellPadding="2" width="100%" border="0"><tr><td class="fonty" vAlign="top" align="left" width="100%" bgColor="#cccccc"><table cellSpacing="2" cellPadding="2" width="100%" border="0"><tr><td class="fonty" vAlign="top" align="left" width="100%" bgColor="#dddddd"><table cellSpacing="8" cellPadding="8" width="100%" border="0"><tr><td class="fontpq" vAlign="top" align="left" width="100%" bgColor="#eeeeee"><b> The market support mechanism for corporate loan defaults around the entire world does not work and cannot work within the context of this common disaster.<br><br>Put another way, it means the US market has no back-up other than the Fed/Treasury printing trillions of dollars in support of market assets which have no real market value. </b></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table> The big question is -- where will the insurance companies get the money? If they do not have the cash reserves to cover it, they have to borrow from the market. If they cannot borrow from the market (which they can't), then they have to get the money from the banks. If they cannot borrow from the banks (which they can't, because it is the banks that are failing) then they have to appeal to the Fed/Treasury. Can the Fed/Treasury nationalize the value of CDSs if the market is not liquid (liquidity means possessing real cash)? I doubt it.<br><br> The total market value of the CDSs market world wide, including Lehman Brothers, is thought to be @ $63 trillion dollars (some say $55 trillion, but it is a huge sum of money, nonetheless). Up to these current times, the CDS system was never required to pay as no defaults have occurred. As such, this derivative market instrument has never been tested.<br><br> CDS are derivatives. This means their value is "derived" from the market value of another underlying asset. If the underlying asset is crap, the CDS must still pay the face value of the insurance on crap. In addition, this market was never regulated and there is no clear market mechanism for settling CDS contractual arrangements (no transparency).<br><br> The Lehman Brothers auction was the first such transaction and given the market conditions, of late, you can imagine the impact these CDS derivatives will have on the current world market if the insurance companies cannot pay out their policy obligations ... which they can't.<br><br> In other words, the market support mechanism for corporate loan defaults around the entire world does not work and cannot work within the context of this common disaster. Put another way, it means the US market has no back-up other than the Fed/Treasury printing trillions of dollars in support of market assets which have no real market value.<br><br> Stagflation + asset devaluation = deep recession/depression.<br><br> Did I explain this clearly enough?<br><br> By the way, Lehman Brothers used to be Goldman Sachs' biggest competitor. Henry Paulson, US Treasury Secretary, used to be G-Sax's CEO. Hmmm -- makes you wonder why Lehman was the only investment house that was not helped by a gov't bailout... <DIV align="right"><BR><i>The Canadian</i> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <SPAN style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #dddddd" class="font11">&nbsp;&nbsp;<A HREF="http://www.unknownnews.org/0810-11TC.html"><FONT COLOR=blue>PERMANENT&nbsp;LINK</FONT></A>&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></div><BR> <!-- REPLY --><img src="http://www.unknownnews.net/grayline.jpg" border="0" width="630" height="3"><BR> <center><BR>|&nbsp;&nbsp; <A HREF="http://www.unknownnews.org/">Latest entry</A> &nbsp;&nbsp;|&nbsp;&nbsp; <A HREF="http://www.unknownnews.org/recent.html">Recent entries</A> &nbsp;&nbsp;|&nbsp;&nbsp; <A HREF="http://www.unknownnews.org/previously.html">Older entries</A> &nbsp;&nbsp;|</center> <BR><center>&nbsp;&nbsp;|&nbsp;&nbsp; <A HREF="http://www.unknownnews.org/"><B>Home</B></A> &nbsp;&nbsp;|&nbsp;&nbsp; <A HREF="http://www.unknownnews.org/about.html">About us</A> &nbsp;&nbsp;|&nbsp;&nbsp; <A 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WIDTH="300" border=0><TR> <TD ALIGN="center" VALIGN="top" BGCOLOR="#ffffff" WIDTH="300" class="font15"><BR> <!-- =today= =and make sure there's no target= --><b>Commentary from <I>Unknown News</I></B> <BR><! match anchor date><B>Sat-Sunday, Oct. 11-12, 2008</b><BR><BR> <A TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.unknownnews.org/0810-11TC.html"><font color=blue><b>It really could be<BR>the end of the world<BR>as we know it</b></font></A> <nobr>by&nbsp;The Canadian</nobr><BR><BR> <A TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.unknownnews.org/0810-11.html#MA110811"> <font color=blue><b>Remember the Constitution</b></font></A> <nobr>by&nbsp;Marvin A.</nobr><BR><BR> <A TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.unknownnews.org/0810-11.html#PA110850"><font color=blue><b>Good old days</b></font></A> <nobr>by&nbsp;Paula A.</nobr><BR> <BR><B>Email:</B> &nbsp;<A HREF="mailto:unknownnews@inbox.com"><B>unknownnews at inbox.com</B></A><BR><BR> </TD></TR></TABLE></TD></TR></TABLE> <A NAME=casualties-box></A><BR> <TABLE 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