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Not so fast...

Official non-event of the day: Lehman CDS settlement

Excerpt:  Tuesday's deadline to settle an estimated $400 billion in credit default swaps on Lehman Brothers failed to trigger feared havoc in the market, and derivatives analysts said the concerns had reflected misunderstandings about the process. "It seems like a non-event," said Tim Backshall, chief strategist at Credit Derivatives Research in Walnut Creek, California. "There's a couple of hedge fund rumors but I am sure they are more general redemption issues than Lehman specific."


Fed to provide up to $540 billion to aid money funds

Excerpt:  The Federal Reserve will provide up to $540 billion in loans to help relieve pressure on money-market mutual funds beset by redemptions.
by Pavel C.

I read that the feared payout of $400 billion to holders of Lehman Brothers CDS insurance turned out the be "the dog that did not bark", a non-event...

Perhaps that is so, but is it not exceedingly strange that today the Federal Reserve announced a completely new, unheard of before, freshly minted bail-out for money markets totaling $540 billion?

In addition to that news item, the US dollar is skyrocketing against every currency except the Japanese yen. The Euro is down more than two cents, to $1.2897, which continues the recent trend, but still, it is a huge move and makes me wonder if a lot of foreigners are converting their "money" into real 'mericun money :-)
Argentine bonds, stocks tumble
on pension fund takeover plan


Excerpt:  Argentine bond yields soared above 24 percent and stocks sank the most in a decade as the government proposed a takeover of pension funds, a move analysts said is a bid to seize assets and stave off the second default this decade.

''It's horrible,'' said Jaime Valdivia, who manages $1 billion of assets for Emerging Sovereign Group in New York. ''We're going back to the dark ages. Not even in times of the worst financial stress did the government ever think about taking over the private pension system.''

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has struggled to cover financing needs that have ballooned as the global financial crisis pushed down prices on the country's commodity exports. The government's borrowing needs will swell to as much as $14 billion next year from about $7 billion in 2008, RBC Capital Markets, a Toronto-based unit of Canada's largest bank, said today.


The difference between the US and say, Argentina, is that the US has the "senior" currency and can print money to pay debts. Argentina is forced to come right out and nationalize their pensions. Bush is stealing by stealth, whereas President Kirchner is boldly and courageously serving the peoples' needs by taking what she wants, openly for all to see ('Take "that", rich people! Filthy pigs!')

All of a sudden they notice that $500 billion went missing, so they needed to "pull a Bush".

I believe the government bailouts are now positioning the US for a catastrophic result. The credit bubble needs to deflate, and we can't fix the economy's problems -- which are the result of bad debts which cannot be repaid -- by having the government dole out trillions to financial corporations so that they can earn profits again by loaning out the government money with interest. It cannot work because the amount of debt is too large! Which this article discusses brilliantly:

The ABCs of Paulson's bailout:
Licensed kleptocracy for years to come


Excerpt:  Paulson's bailout plan reflects a state of denial with regard to this dynamic. The debt overhead is self-aggravating, becoming less and less "solvable" and hence more of a quandary, that is, a problem with no visible solution. At least, no solution acceptable to Wall Street, and hence to Paulson and the Democratic and Republican congressional leaders. The banks and large swaths of the financial sector are broke from having made bad gambles in the belief that money could be made to "work" under conditions that shrink the underlying industrial economy and stifle wage gains, eroding the market for consumer goods. Debt deflation reduces sales and business activity in general, and hence corporate earnings. This depresses stock market and real estate prices, and hence the value of collateral pledged to back the economy's debt overhead. Negative equity leads to bankruptcy and foreclosures.

By increasing America's national debt from $5 trillion earlier this year to $13 trillion in almost a single swoop by taking on junk loans and other bad investments rather than letting them to under as traditionally has occurred in the "cleansing" culmination of business crashes ("cleansing" in the sense of clean slates for debts that cannot reasonably be paid), Paulson's bailout actions increase the interest payments that the government must pay out of taxes or by borrowing (ore printing) yet more money. Someone must pay for bad debts and junk loans that are not wiped off the books. The government is now to take on the roll of debt collector to "make a profit for taxpayers" by going around and kneecapping the economy -- which of course is comprised primarily of the "taxpayers" ostensibly being helped.
So, not only is the government attempting the impossible, which is to (try to) re-inflate the credit bubble, and not only are they literally *giving* hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars to the upper-class incompetents who should be fired or jailed, but they are making the problem worse in two ways:

1) adding to the total amount of debt and interest payments in the total economy (someone will have to pay sometime); and ...

2) they are taking ALL of the risks in the economy and if their plans fail -- which is 95% certain -- the government will eat trillions of losses and STILL have a failed economy to fix!

Now we are experiencing a moment of relative calm, which was purchased for a mere $5 trillion in bail-out money, and is probably intended to help the GOP in the November election. Afterwards though, what about the rest of the credit default swaps? Can the government prevent all bankruptcies by falling on the exploding grenades (and does that even help?)

I suspect that the recent historic peak in volatility will lead to lowered volatility, but instead of marking the beginning of a new bull market in stocks, the reduced volatility will simply describe a long slow debt workout and grindingly tortuous economic decline -- years and years. However, there are other possibilities:

1) The secrecy we've seen after the Lehman CDS payout (Oct 21) and the amazing currency market explosions (night before Oct 22) allow us to hope that many of the Lehman payers were overseas!@ In fact, we can hope that once again the foreigners got ripped off, and that our fair American asses get bailed out by wealthy, gullible foreigners. In fact, perhaps the US has destabilized the entire system of global finance, and by comparison we'll still be rich and able to subsidize our lifestyles by parasitizing the downtrodden developing world! Oh yeah.

2) Debt repudiation. So far the bailouts have gone to the wealthy and top corporations. Perhaps the new president will go to town bailing out voters! So that would be the next phase of the government "solution". At some point market discipline will force frugality on the kleptocrats, but until that time, the kleptocratic klowns running this country can keep on disbursing money to buy votes and power. Eventually it will be acknowledged that the USA is just a bigger Argentina and we will repudiate the national debt -- openly or by hyperinflating it away.

3) The bailouts fail and the government is forced to declare a bank "holiday", doing a Alt-Dtrl-Del on the monetary system. Don't imagine they won't because most of the people in power are wealthy and would come out ahead financially -- they keep their homes and jobs and healthcare regardless of the devastation they create for 99% of the population.

We'll see. Interesting times ahead!

Pavel C.         PERMANENT LINK  



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Commentary from Unknown News
Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2008

Not so fast... by Pavel C.

Where are the swift boats? by Cindy B.

Joe Klein, sit on this by Angry Annie

Ameros in use by Sherri B.


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Now we are experiencing a moment of relative calm, which was purchased for a mere $5 trillion in bail-out money, and is probably intended to help the GOP in the November election.

Afterwards though, what about the rest of the credit default swaps?

Can the government prevent all bankruptcies by falling on the exploding grenades (and does that even help?)